As Election Day Dawns a Red Wave Looks Likely.

Polls are now open across the US in what is deemed will be a mid-term reckoning. Or a red wave by any other name.

Barring no major mishaps analysts expect the ‘Reds’ will sweep the boards at the polls. Republicans have been said to rank ahead of Dems on the issues of the day; inflation, security on all fronts and concerns about threats to individual freedoms. And so much more.

Now let’s poll some pundits to hear what they have to say.

From the Five Thirty Eight Forecast: if each party were to win every race they are currently favoured to win, Republicans would have 51 Senate seats and Democrats would have 49; according to our Deluxe forecast.

And if the same thing happens in the House; Republicans would win 225 seats and Democrats would win 210.

But those gains would be modest by the standards of midterm elections.

Five thirty Eight Forecast reckons it won’t be a red wave but more like a red ripple.

At the same time they say that this does not mean that a red way is impossible.

They then go into the hypotheticals; what if Republicans end up by leading by 5.4 percentage points. Now that would be a red Tsunami. They would stand to gain 46 seats in the house alone, not to mention Dems loses would be huge.

A big voter turn-out will favour the Republican Party, and reports so far show the numbers at some polling stations are huge.

In fact there have been calls for people to be patient and hold the line and not to become impatient and leave.

Then there is the opinion that if Republicans make inroads it won’t be in the swing states this time round.

It will come from blue states like Oregon and New York.

In addition this year there are 19 open seats; and a majority of them were previously held by Democrats.

Then there is the thinking abortion is not the silver bullet that Dems though it would be. It brings to mind the phrase that all politics is local. This is true in states where legal protections for abortion are in place.

Then there are the Republican concerns. We are already told that the vote counts could take a few days in some states. So there are the visions of a repeat of the 2020 elections. There is the take it should not take a few days to count votes and that such a situation is intolerable.

Remember delays and fits and starts in counting are not a good look. It just serves to rouse suspicions all is not well.

Another thing we know fraud takes place so there is that.

What about the plan to have Federal government election monitors; or is it too much like foxes guarding the hen house? Well Florida has put a stop to it.

Then we had Joe Biden’s speech just a week ago, when he addressed, the threat of election deniers. If this sounded at all ominous that’s because it was.

Did you pick-up the bit where he said the 2022 mid-term elections could easily be considered illegitimate; if Congress does not pass voting rights legislation.

Was this a hint of what is to come? Is he telling us in advance this is how he could call these elections?

One article led with the teaser, Red wave or wipe out. Well we know it won’t be the latter but the former is looking more and more attainable. At least if things go according to plan.

Then there is the saying about the best laid plans going astray.

No one wants to think about that one; what it could mean and how it could play out in this context.

Go well this Election Day everyone. Have a good one.

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Ann Carriage

Political animal, interested in the story behind the story. A concepts driven individual.